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  1. #21
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by rkspsm View Post
    I'll actually say, dont point them to anywhere. No, not because I find her wrong or anything, but because I think we are past that stage. We are past the point of debates and reasoning. And when that happens, we need to adopt different strategy to deal with the situation.

    People have self segregated to their respective groups, just like they have done all throughout the history. Now I no longer point to covid and say "look the mainstream media is trash", thats soo yesterday. Today I say, look how its simply impossible for a large number of people to just "get along". The world is soo fkn done with the fairy tale concept of "peaceful coexistence" or "non-aggression" or any other such stuff.
    I see your point on the larger issue. But even if there were only five or ten or a hundred people out there sitting on the fence when it comes to the jab, I'd still do this. (And there must be lots more than that, considering that -- in the U.S. for instance -- somewhere around 25% of people haven't gotten the shot.) I'm not trying to change minds. I'm only trying to supply information I run across from time to time, so each still-undecided person can decide for himself the better course of action.

    For the folks who want to get vaccinated and nothing will change their minds, I wish them all the best. For the folks who don't want to get vaccinated and nothing will change their minds, I wish them all the best, too.

    For the folks who are leaning in one or the other direction but still aren't quite sure, all I'd say is that the situation is dynamic and it changes every week as new data and studies surface. That's my "audience," so to speak.

  2. #22
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    I see your point on the larger issue. But even if there were only five or ten or a hundred people out there sitting on the fence when it comes to the jab, I'd still do this. (And there must be lots more than that, considering that -- in the U.S. for instance -- somewhere around 25% of people haven't gotten the shot.) I'm not trying to change minds. I'm only trying to supply information I run across from time to time, so each still-undecided person can decide for himself the better course of action.

    For the folks who want to get vaccinated and nothing will change their minds, I wish them all the best. For the folks who don't want to get vaccinated and nothing will change their minds, I wish them all the best, too.

    For the folks who are leaning in one or the other direction but still aren't quite sure, all I'd say is that the situation is dynamic and it changes every week as new data and studies surface. That's my "audience," so to speak.
    Well, when it comes to changing the minds, I am, in a way of speaking, a lot more flexible than most people out there. And the simple reason is that I will COMPLETELY disassociate the argument from its source. Which means, ANYBODY can potentially change my mind, regardless of who he or she is. The person can be a pious priest, a hardliner jihadi, a kkk nazi, bumbling hairy legged biden, a pink haired feminist, a drug addict deranged hobo, anybody... IF they can coherently present their arguments AND win the debate with me.

    So yes, anybody who feels the need to change me, is welcome to duke it out in the arena. Easier said than done though, I have some very good teachers ...

    I get your idea though, and I appreciate that. But at the same time, I myself wont do that, because I dont want to save a slow learner. He is simply a liability in the battlefield, and we are very much IN the battlefield. I'd rather spend time to communicate with people on my side. And the one thing I have to say them is to steel yourself. Because the government wont back down, the moron zombie squad wont back down, they will only escalate. Yes, no harm in hoping it doesnt come to a messy exchange, but its getting more and more unlikely every passing moment.

    The thing which we have observed all the time in humans, which hasnt changed regardless of education or technology, is that they have different surroundings, genetics, priorities, needs and wants. Which results in disagreements on how things are to be done, and those disagreements CAN reach to a point where the coexistence becomes near impossible. From that point on there are several options, in this specific order :

    - You can try to convince them: succeeds only when disagreement isnt large enough.

    - If convincing fails, you can try to bribe them. Which is what the middle class has been doing by paying taxes for welfare and all that. Basically bribing the government and the underclass to just leave them alone. It eventually fails because the recipients of bribery eventually get greedy.

    - After bribery, the option is separation. We must separate and go our own ways. The problem with this is, both parties needs their elites to champion their cause. But all the elites of the world are on one side and they will hard cancel anybody trying to rise up for the other. So this option is also failing...

    - And lastly, if everything else fails, we need to do it the hard and messy way... and we are not very far from there.
    Last edited by rkspsm; August 29, 2021 at 9:23 AM. Reason: typo
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  3. #23
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    I've always been a "data guy." I like having as much information as possible, even if the topic is something that's totally n/a to me, like 3D printing or raising gerbils. (I just found out it's possible to "3D print" a building.) What's fustrating is that there's always more information out there I don't know about. It either hasn't been discovered yet, or it has been but it's being kept hidden by people who have something to lose if it ever gets out.

    The dark side of that: That undiscovered (or discovered but intentionally-concealed) data may mean the difference between success and failure, or even life and death.

    Most people who seem incapable of being influenced by truth fall into one or more of these categories:

    * They're too lazy to chase down the facts.

    * They're too busy with useless endeavors to chase down the facts.

    * They don't have the above-the-neck processing power to process the facts.

    * They're too insecure to change decisions they've already made.

    * They're too prideful to admit they're wrong (cf the name-callers and slogan-hurlers).

    * They're terrified of being kicked out of their wine-and-cheese social circles if they abandon those circles' groupthink.

    All I can do is present reality. The opinion change is the responsibility of the other person, and how that goes don't matter to me. I wasn't the originator of the "walkaway" hashtag, but I was certainly an early adopter.

  4. #24

    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    I've got my first poke scheduled for 8/31, but the more I read, the more doubts I have. Confusing.

    It doesn't protect against the delta variant, and the original one is "basically gone," so what's the point? The scientist in that video said you can actually have worse reactions to the delta variant, if you've been vaccinated against the original one. So why risk side effects of the vaccine? I've heard any number of stories of people feeling badly for days after getting the vaccine. And it's an experimental therapy, with inadequate testing. Plus, there is all the political pressure and shaming around it, and my natural reaction to being pressured/controlled is to rebel, to say no.

    On the other hand, the overwhelming majority of the news/opinion seems to be the vaccines are "safe and effective," and nearly everyone dying from covid has not been vaccinated (great scare tactic). What the hell.

    My basic suspicion is that the whole thing is overblown. We know it was pushed for political purposes, and we know the news media feeds off it because it generates fear (clicks, revenue). And yet, I figure, most doctors are behind it, most "experts" seem to think it's a good idea, and so maybe my reluctance, too, is overblown.

    It's hard for me to sort it all out, in part because I was ignoring most of the coverage until recently. That's on me.

  5. #25
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    E.H., some of what you say is true. I congratulate you for questioning what you're hearing.

    I referenced this in an earlier post, but I'll do it again here. This is Thomas Siler, M.D.'s "The Bad And The Ugly About COVID in America":

    https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...n_america.html

  6. #26
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    Most people who seem incapable of being influenced by truth fall into one or more of these categories:

    * They're too lazy to chase down the facts.

    * They're too busy with useless endeavors to chase down the facts.

    * They don't have the above-the-neck processing power to process the facts.

    * They're too insecure to change decisions they've already made.

    * They're too prideful to admit they're wrong (cf the name-callers and slogan-hurlers).

    * They're terrified of being kicked out of their wine-and-cheese social circles if they abandon those circles' groupthink.
    Amen to all of them. But I'll add one more thing, and this pertains to otherwise smart people. The thing is, its very much possible and often easy, to detect lies even when you dont know anything about the source.

    The first error people do is trying to detect truth. This is extremely costly and futile exercise. Because as you gain more information, its very likely that any "truth" you know will need to be updated to account for the new information, or sometimes be totally rejected. Why its costly ? Because truth can be established only if you know the WHOLE thing, and not the part. One small example : what comes after 1, 2, _. Most people will say, 3, which is fine. But what if I provide additional information: 1, 2, _, 8, 16 . Now ? Is it still 3 ?

    The lie ? Lie is way easier to detect. The classic example, I can be the smartest mathematician and I tell you 2 + 2 = 5. You know its a lie. Doesnt matter jackshit if I am a mathematician or even some alien who just descended on the planet.

    This process can be quite counterintuitive when applied, and requires constant practice and some training to do so. Example is that video you suggested, some speech by Dr. Christina Parks. I havent watched the video yet, but if and when I do, the first thing I will do in my head is, I will REMOVE all the information about her being phd or whatever. That is not relevant to anything. And then I will see her statements and will try to find some incoherence, either within themselves or some other observation and information I have from other sources.

    If I cannot find any incoherence I will conclude that I cannot detect any lying, which means I will accept, for now. Until and unless some new information appears in future which creates the incoherence and then I will go back to drawing board to process the update.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  7. #27
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Clapton's new song, "This Has Gotta Stop."

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dNt4NIQ7FTA

  8. #28
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    All I can do is present reality. The opinion change is the responsibility of the other person, and how that goes don't matter to me. I wasn't the originator of the "walkaway" hashtag, but I was certainly an early adopter.
    Sheesh... Sorry about that piss-poor grammar. I gotta stop listening to country music.

  9. #29
    Senior Member mgtower's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    E.H., some of what you say is true. I congratulate you for questioning what you're hearing.

    I referenced this in an earlier post, but I'll do it again here. This is Thomas Siler, M.D.'s "The Bad And The Ugly About COVID in America":

    https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...n_america.html
    Stop confusing people with the facts, they were there, they saw, they heard, and were censored themselves!

    They saw the election fraud hinged to C-!9 with observers being blocked out, they saw the border crises happen, runaway inflation like plywood @ $100.00 bucks a sheet, the Dakota and Keystone XL pipelines gutted along with our energy dependence, while approving a pipeline for Russia to gain energy dominance in the European theater.

    Last but not least, they see the Americans trapped behind enemy lines with bounties on their heads!

    What makes you think you can sober anyone up that's been breathing a steady flow of gaslight fumes?

    Remember all those plastic caskets they made?
    Hmmm?

    The Georgia guide stone?

    Those that forget the past (sucking gas light fumes) are condemned to repeat it.



    P.S.
    Sing along;
    Armageddon here we come, Du-da, Du-da,
    Any man that seeks leadership outside himself has a fool for a guide.

  10. #30

    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    E.H., some of what you say is true. I congratulate you for questioning what you're hearing.

    I referenced this in an earlier post, but I'll do it again here. This is Thomas Siler, M.D.'s "The Bad And The Ugly About COVID in America":

    https://www.americanthinker.com/arti...n_america.html

    Thanks, man, I appreciate it. In addition to everything else, I'm also bothered by the fact that the companies manufacturing the vaccine are immune from any threat of litigation -- no accountability for their experimental vaccine, if anything goes wrong. I also don't like the fact that it's got RNA in the title. I don't know enough about the vaccine or genetics to say, but to me, that's too close to DNA for comfort. I would be more comfortable with a traditional vaccine.

    I am confused as to whether the vaccine works with the delta variant. Some say it does; some say it doesn't. Are you aware of any actual data on the subject? Since the vaccine has never been tested on the delta variant, maybe that's just not a question we have any data on.

    I lost my faith in the medical establishment a while ago, so I tend to be skeptical generally.

    I'll have to sit down with all this information and figure out whether to get poked or not. I may end up just putting it off, until I feel more clear about it, one way or another.

  11. #31
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    Are you aware of any actual data on the subject ?
    Is it even possible to have actual data on anything which is under conflict ? Any data produced by any side, the other side can claim that its fake. In addition to ad hominems and name calling the source.

    If I just give a link to some data on the internet hosted at some random site... its just some random data on random site... Will you feel comfortable enough to use it to negate the advice of your doctors ? There is no denying to the fact that lots of data on the internet is wrong, which means there is a possibility that any such data can be utterly bs, regardless of which side it belongs to.

    So why not look at the data you already have, from the medical establishment. You have data like total deaths, total hospitalization and all that. And most of that data is already summarized. Which means instead of getting a full table with each row corresponding to a single patient and his/her details, you get summaries (totals, averages, etc). And any summarization is a one way process. Which means if you want to do a different kind of analysis/summarization on the original data, you cannot do it from the summary itself (in most cases atleast).

    Example: If you have the data on heights of a large number of people from all over the world, and then you tell me just the average height. I cannot use that data to determine the average height of an Indian. I am an Indian and lives in India, which means, there is very high likelihood that whatever need I have for average height, its the Indian average I need. So I have two choices here, I can either ask you do that analysis on the table and tell me the result or give me the entire table and let me do the analysis myself. If none of the choices are available to me, then its better for me to seek some other source, even if it means finding some data which is collected for relatively a small number of people but only Indians.

    So coming back to covid and vaccine. There are several standpoints, and obviously I cannot go through all of them, I'll just put two competing standpoints. One is the medical/government standpoint: "Covid is dangerous, vaccine helps, get vaccinated ASAP !" vs the standpoint I have "Covid is a bad flu, its just that people are unhealthy, have unhealthy and unhygienic lifestyles, which turns a bad flu into a killer flu".

    There are SEVERAL sources of data available about all the diseases people have. And that corresponds perfectly well to my local observation, the observations of my doctors. If I ask you to find people, who are not obese, diabetic, dont have deficiencies (vitamin D deficiency is kindda epidemic), dont work in polluted or hazardous environments, have proper diet, dont have genetic disorders, dont drink beyond reasonable, dont smoke, dont do drugs, exercise regularly... how many people do you think you can find ? VERY FEW.

    So what I actually need is, some analysis which takes THAT into account. There can be many, but one which I particularly like is correlation. I wont go into details but it can tell me things like, what fraction of people who get hospitalized belong to that unhealthy group and what fraction doesnt. I also want to take into account someone dying of covid only as an immediate cause. There was a distant relative of mine, an elderly woman, who died from covid few weeks ago, I mean her death was reported as covid death. She had breast cancer at an advanced stage, and was about to die in one month either way. I mean seriously ??! Thats soo NOT a covid death. She had a co-morbidity, which did most of the work in killing her so to speak.

    All that brings me to my conclusion, which is, instead of giving advice to you or anyone (and get alleged that I am trying to give medical advice), I will only tell what I am doing, and HOW I concluded that this is the best way. Because I dont have complete data and only summary, I cannot conduct my analysis. And because I cannot conduct my analysis, I will resort to doing something which already works : getting myself healthy. I have a sedentary job, which means during things like lockdowns etc, I tend to gain a bit of weight, which means I need to keep a very regular schedule of exercises. I used to do just walking and light jogging, but these days I also incorporated running into the routine. And not just running, but running under the sun. That is to combat risk of vitamin D deficiency which is something I had few years ago (now fixed).

    TLDR: I will change from something that works to something that may work or may not work or may be disastrous, I need complete data, not summary and endless parroting. This is reflected in old sayings, such as "dont fix if it aint broke".
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  12. #32

    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by rkspsm View Post
    Is it even possible to have actual data on anything which is under conflict ? Any data produced by any side, the other side can claim that its fake. In addition to ad hominems and name calling the source.
    Yes, that happens, but I'm not on a side, and I'm not going to do ad hominem. I'm just looking for some data on whether the vaccine is effective against delta. Maybe it doesn't exist. If it does, though, I figured someone here might have it at their fingertips. If not, cool. I'll do my own search.

    If I just give a link to some data on the internet hosted at some random site... its just some random data on random site... Will you feel comfortable enough to use it to negate the advice of your doctors?
    Depends. You say "random site" and "random data," but I have a pretty good sense of what is solid data and what isn't, and who sounds like they know what they're talking about and who doesn't. I fall in the category of those who are most suspicious of the vaccine (PhDs), and I've got a lot of professional experience analyzing data and scientific studies.

    There is no denying to the fact that lots of data on the internet is wrong, which means there is a possibility that any such data can be utterly bs, regardless of which side it belongs to.
    Of course.

    So why not look at the data you already have, from the medical establishment.
    Ok, maybe I should just do my own search, instead of asking here. That's cool.

    You have data like total deaths, total hospitalization and all that. And most of that data is already summarized. Which means instead of getting a full table with each row corresponding to a single patient and his/her details, you get summaries (totals, averages, etc). And any summarization is a one way process. Which means if you want to do a different kind of analysis/summarization on the original data, you cannot do it from the summary itself (in most cases atleast).
    Yes, I understand that.

    [....] So coming back to covid and vaccine. There are several standpoints, and obviously I cannot go through all of them, I'll just put two competing standpoints. One is the medical/government standpoint: "Covid is dangerous, vaccine helps, get vaccinated ASAP !" vs the standpoint I have "Covid is a bad flu, its just that people are unhealthy, have unhealthy and unhygienic lifestyles, which turns a bad flu into a killer flu".

    There are SEVERAL sources of data available about all the diseases people have. And that corresponds perfectly well to my local observation, the observations of my doctors. If I ask you to find people, who are not obese, diabetic, dont have deficiencies (vitamin D deficiency is kindda epidemic), dont work in polluted or hazardous environments, have proper diet, dont have genetic disorders, dont drink beyond reasonable, dont smoke, dont do drugs, exercise regularly... how many people do you think you can find ? VERY FEW.

    So what I actually need is, some analysis which takes THAT into account. There can be many, but one which I particularly like is correlation. I wont go into details but it can tell me things like, what fraction of people who get hospitalized belong to that unhealthy group and what fraction doesnt. I also want to take into account someone dying of covid only as an immediate cause. There was a distant relative of mine, an elderly woman, who died from covid few weeks ago, I mean her death was reported as covid death. She had breast cancer at an advanced stage, and was about to die in one month either way. I mean seriously ??! Thats soo NOT a covid death. She had a co-morbidity, which did most of the work in killing her so to speak.

    All that brings me to my conclusion, which is, instead of giving advice to you or anyone (and get alleged that I am trying to give medical advice), I will only tell what I am doing, and HOW I concluded that this is the best way. Because I dont have complete data and only summary, I cannot conduct my analysis. And because I cannot conduct my analysis, I will resort to doing something which already works : getting myself healthy. I have a sedentary job, which means during things like lockdowns etc, I tend to gain a bit of weight, which means I need to keep a very regular schedule of exercises. I used to do just walking and light jogging, but these days I also incorporated running into the routine. And not just running, but running under the sun. That is to combat risk of vitamin D deficiency which is something I had few years ago (now fixed).
    I agree with you here, and that fits with what doctors I respect have said -- that COVID is taking people out who were already going to die of something else (the co-morbid conditions you mentioned). They are being counted as "covid deaths," but really, they are deaths due to the usual suspects -- metabolic syndrome and all its downstream consequences.

    I'm an older guy (60), but I'm healthy -- none of the metabolic syndrome chronic diseases, not overweight, healthy diet (not according to the official nutritional guidelines, but those are backwards), get adequate exercise and sleep, don't have any of the factors that raise your risk level.

    And I agree with you completely, that the best thing you can do to protect against covid is to get healthy. Naturally, our government does not promote this message at all, but instead it's all focused on getting the vaccine. I wonder how much money is involved in all of this, how much financial incentives get disguised as concern over public health.

    Anyway, thanks for the input.

  13. #33
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    Yes, that happens, but I'm not on a side, and I'm not going to do ad hominem. I'm just looking for some data on whether the vaccine is effective against delta. Maybe it doesn't exist. If it does, though, I figured someone here might have it at their fingertips. If not, cool. I'll do my own search.

    Depends. You say "random site" and "random data," but I have a pretty good sense of what is solid data and what isn't, and who sounds like they know what they're talking about and who doesn't. I fall in the category of those who are most suspicious of the vaccine (PhDs), and I've got a lot of professional experience analyzing data and scientific studies.
    I actually do have something, but its more of an analysis than data : https://www.flemingmethod.com/live-stream-of-event-2021

    If you have experience with data analysis then I hope you understand why I was being defensive and cautious. There are people who do NOT have any experience with that, dont understand neither medical science nor data science, and all they will do is measure how many degrees and accreditations each side is producing before deciding on which side is more correct. And an absurdly large number of people do that, and it gets frustating to argue with them. Nothing I will ever say will get past them unless I produce enough degrees from my side which matches the other side, which in this case is downright impossible.

    This is why I am in "yeah fuck you" mode by default, and lower my defenses only when I see the other person is reasonable. So again, I apologize for being a bit harsh if it looked like that, its just a defensive posture. I do belong to a "side" at this point on this issue and I just have to be like that for my own sanity.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    ... and that fits with what doctors I respect have said -- that COVID is taking people out who were already going to die of something else (the co-morbid conditions you mentioned). They are being counted as "covid deaths," but really, they are deaths due to the usual suspects -- metabolic syndrome and all its downstream consequences.
    Same here, and its more than that. Because I dont know whats going on in the world, and west in general, there is so much gag order on doctors there. In my country, doctors are more free to do what they want to do with each individual case, as long as they dont publicly speak against vaccine etc. There is government pressure, but its just to stay quiet. Other than that, they told me that none of their patients who turned out to be covid positive needed to get hospitalized, and it was in double digits for each doctor.

    They told me if the case was mild it was the usual symptomatic treatment, just like in common flu. And in cases which started to get serious, they were recommended Ivermectin, which had an amazing response. I know one guy personally who went from extremely sick (bordering hospitalization) to almost recovered within a day or two after the start of Ivermectin.

    That was in addition to things like vitamin D and vitamin C doses.

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    I'm an older guy (60), but I'm healthy -- none of the metabolic syndrome chronic diseases, not overweight, healthy diet (not according to the official nutritional guidelines, but those are backwards), get adequate exercise and sleep, don't have any of the factors that raise your risk level.

    And I agree with you completely, that the best thing you can do to protect against covid is to get healthy. Naturally, our government does not promote this message at all, but instead it's all focused on getting the vaccine. I wonder how much money is involved in all of this, how much financial incentives get disguised as concern over public health.
    Glad to hear that you are healthy !! I dont think you have anything to worry about, unless you need to be in a situations which are naturally risky, like any small place filled with large crowds. I myself hate crowd in general, and I had to face that when I used public transport many years ago, and I used to fall sick often. Thankfully I no longer need to do that.

    About the medical establishment, it was always like that but this time they have crossed a line. Crossed several lines. They have openly declared war on common sense and sanity. And I am not going to just bow down and give up that easily.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  14. #34
    Senior Member stanmsl's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    I did promise a while back that I’d do a post on this, my observations.

    1* Vaccines have an amazing track record of saving lives; estimates are in the region of 2-3 million lives a year. The Value of Vaccines | RESULTS UK Anti vaxers have an amazing track record of spreading lies and misinformation long before covid was on the scene. Anti-vaccination movement - RationalWiki

    2* Some people openly stated upfront they were not having the covid jab before it was even developed, before anything was even known about it’s safety or effectiveness. Now the same people are using safety as an argument which is obviously not the real reason.

    3* Anti vaxers consist of a wide range of different beliefs. You have the “wait and see if it’s safe” vs the more sinister “microchip tracking” and “population reduction . There’s a spectrum of beliefs from the hard line “all vaccines are bad” Vs “just the covid vaccine is bad '' Vs “only old people” should have it.

    4* No conflict between the above groups. When was the last time you saw a social media post of a “microchip tracking theorist” attacking the viewpoint of “population reduction theorist” Or the hardline anti vaxxers and the more moderate ones attacking each other. What you actually see are people who hold mutually exclusive beliefs side by side at the same protests.
    This is a common flaw to most conspiracy theories because it’s a physiological need to hate authority rather than a rational analysis of evidence.

    5* Complete lack of logic and consistency. For over a year now I have watched friends posting viewpoints and theories that completely contradicted what they were posting a couple of months earlier. First the virus was a plot to kill off old people when the exact opposite actually happened. Estimates of the very old, including centenarians, UK - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk) Then hydroxychloroquine was the miracle cure that everyone quietly forgot about. This year I see the same people doing the same with the vaccine.

    On 23 August the FDA approved the pfizer vaccine, are all the people who previously used the argument “pfizer vaccine not approved by the FDA” going to suddenly change their minds and get the jab??? Of course not, they are just going to move the goalposts and come up with other excuses. Words like “experimental”, “not safe”, ”weakening the immune system” can mean anything the anti vaxxer wants it to mean.
    Quote Originally Posted by nothingness View Post
    The people who need to watch it would just say "It's on rumble. Fake news.

    Conspiracy theorists are more than happy to share content from the mainstream media when it supports or appears to support their claims. Seen posts claiming to be a screenshot of a government website with no actual link to the website in question. People just click Like / share without the most basic critical thinking.

    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    we see a gigantic, long-term, sophisticated, and extremely disciplined coordination....................The people with the tinfoil hats today are the ones who don't think there are huge conspiracies, that things just happen without planning or coordination.
    6* None of the points 3/4/5 is anything new to me. I have studied conspiracy theories and other irrational beliefs for many years and see the same patterns and flaws each time. It’s due to how the human brain is hardwired. I pointed this out in a previous post.
    Covid Conspiracy Time! (goingyourownway.com).
    On a physiological level disasters are easier to process when it’s someone else's fault.

    Go and watch a few videos or read a few websites on a conspiracy theory you don’t believe in like flat earth or holocaust denial. Look at the arguments and terminology they use, look at how they manipulate basic science and history. How they claim to have discovered facts that “THEY don’t want you to know” or “follow the money”...........all the same in the end……….

    Quote Originally Posted by rkspsm View Post
    Today I say, look how its simply impossible for a large number of people to just "get along".

    YES humans have a terrible track record of getting along. So it takes a serious stretch of the imagination that governments (even those who hate each other), doctors, scientists and countless others are all in on some big lie.
    Quote Originally Posted by mgtower View Post
    If they find out the vax has serious side effects in 2 to 3 years there nothing you can do to undo the damages when they occur.

    7* Irrational fears of unknown versus known harm.
    There’s also nothing you can do when you are unvaccinated and on a ventilator.

    I bet anti vaxxers consume tobacco, alcohol, illegal drugs, junk food at exactly the same rates as the general population. Pointed out this lack of logic in a previous thread Burger King's "impossible" Burger (goingyourownway.com) Anti vaxxers demand an unreasonable level of “safety” that they wouldn’t demand from most other things. Apparently some are now taking horse dewormers. Why You Should Not Use Ivermectin to Treat or Prevent COVID-19 | FDA

    Last year social distancing and mask wearing was “living in fear”.
    Now the people who said this are terrified at the tiny fraction of 1 percent who end up with things like blood clots. As well as predicting North Korean style police states and apocalyptic population control.

    We already have a list of side effects from the virus called long covid. Nobody knows how bad this will be in 2 to 3 years either. I don’t fancy being a “guinea pig” for that. Can all these people with these preventable conditions take legal action against their favourite twitter anti vaxxer ?
    Largest Study of Lingering COVID-19 Effects Suggests at Looming Problem | Time. A subject that seems to be quietly ignored by conspiracy theorists.

    8* A lot of claims can be debunked in seconds
    Microchip Tracking, just use peoples phones.
    Reducing birth rates, while China is trying to do the exact opposite.
    Bill Gates is hardly short of money and at age 65 could easily be dead by the time any population reduction program benefits him (how ?).

    9* Humans put themselves in “prisons” without government help.
    Obesity, gambling, substance abuse, video games, social media etc. No need to fake a pandemic to “control people” required.

    ‘Psychic Gym Bro’ Recognized For Predicting Lockdown Agenda (goingyourownway.com)

    10* Money can be made by predicting the future. Certain businesses benefited from extended lockdowns. I bet none of these people who supposedly had “inside information” like the above thread were buying shares in these companies and profited from this mess.
    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    I'd rather be naturally immune than junkie-style immune.

    11* The natural fallacy Nature wants 8 of your 10 siblings dead before they make it out of childhood and you dead by age 30. Nature had thousands of years to make us immune from Smallpox/Polio and failed.
    The idea that anything made in a lab by a faceless corporation is “bad” by default is completely irrational.
    Quote Originally Posted by kru-kut View Post
    the point I made about drug companies' bottom lines.

    12* Follow the money. These “big name” anti vaxxers have their online stores, selling unregulated products hiding behind legal disclaimers. There's a lot of money to be made by vaccine misinformation.

    If companies don’t make money on the vaccine, they will still make it on something else (often much much more) like the drugs used to treat the after effects. Entire hospitals were once dedicated to treating polio. The vaccine rendered the iron lung and other such treatments obsolete. Ironically a lot of people claim there are easy cures for many illnesses like cancer and the medical industry is hiding this so that they can make money treating them in hospitals. I don’t like paying for medication with 20 to 1 profit margins, but it’s better than living in a world without any of that medication at all.

    Very few people get through life and die in their sleep at age 90 without some need of modern medication. It’s an inevitable fact of living 3 times longer than nature intended. Drug companies will get the money one way or the other.

    Men are becoming MGTOW by the millions, most without ever having heard the term. They are simply doing what all living organisms finding themselves in a toxic environment do. They adapt to it or remove themselves from it. Females are not liking either the adaptations or the removal.

    ,TWITTER FEED BLOG

  15. #35
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by stanmsl View Post
    YES humans have a terrible track record of getting along. So it takes a serious stretch of the imagination that governments (even those who hate each other), doctors, scientists and countless others are all in on some big lie.
    There are people who believe that all the governments and corporations are secretly cooperating on everything, though I am not one of them. It is ridiculous to begin with. And I have opposed that on several threads on this forum, and have suggested alternative models which are more likely to work.

    But neverthless, my message was about people, not government. If they come to force something on me, then they are free to try, whatever they want. I am free to do whatever I can.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  16. #36
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by stanmsl View Post
    No conflict between the above groups. When was the last time you saw a social media post of a “microchip tracking theorist” attacking the viewpoint of “population reduction theorist” Or the hardline anti vaxxers and the more moderate ones attacking each other. What you actually see are people who hold mutually exclusive beliefs side by side at the same protests.

    This is a
    common flaw to most conspiracy theories because it’s a physiological need to hate authority rather than a rational analysis of evidence.
    Ha !! So you see why they dont attack each other ?

    THAT is the strategy to reduce the burden of cooperation when you are going against a common enemy or a goal. The pirate method, and I have said about it several times on this forum. Its an unwritten agreement that their main enemy is the target, not each other. So they will, mostly, stay away from each other's throats.

    And this is what I suggest to people who believe all government and corporations are in bed with one another. Its not even remotely possible for so many people to cooperate on such a large scale. But the appearance of cooperation can be achieved very cheaply by loosely adhering to pirate method. Yes it doesnt happen with perfection as it may happen with theoretically ideal "one group behind everyone", but it doesnt need to be perfect. Its just an amazing tradeoff.

    And about psychological need, I dont know and cant say about other people, but I have a very strong need to defend myself. And that too with inverted logic. Which means I wont bother with, a rather time consuming and futile, exercise of determining what Bill Gates or any other such big name wants or can get from anything. I will simply check how much can I respond if they attack me, how well can I defend myself. If the answer is "not much" then that means there is asymmetry of power.

    This goes for both sides. Even the religious or anti-vaxxer groups, who say something to me, but I dont have the ability to inflict any harm in return for lying or attempt to defraud me, then there is a problem.

    Which is why, unless I own devices which can throw lead projectiles, there can never exist any assumption, that a powerful entity is out there to benefit me. If I cannot fight a potential predator, then I will devise strategies to outrun or outwit them. Are they definitely a predator ? I dont know, and dont really care. Just that they can be if they want to, without giving me any warning or information.

    For comparison, if I take some average person, say neighbor next door, he is more equal in power. Which means if he wants me to do something, he will have to negotiate with me. Which means, while I will apply the same set of logic, I can be much more assured, that this person is likely to refrain from doing something which may end up him being in trouble.

    Also, for comparison, I will be extremely cautious with a person BELOW me in power asymmetry, even more than I would be against people above me. The person who is weaker than me, can apply the above principle against me. That is, I am a natural enemy to him, which means I will fully expect that person to try to trick me. With a more powerful person, they can afford to be somewhat lax and give me clues. The weaker person however will be much more diligent with his attempts to trick me.

    On many other things though, you are right. The anti vaxxers and religious people can be quite frustating to deal with. Which is even apparent from my arguments with them on this very forum. Some of them were extremely hostile.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  17. #37
    Senior Member mgtower's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    There's a difference between anti vax and anti vax mandate. I'm neither anti vax or pro vax mandate, but if forced to choose, I'll side with the anti vax mandate. Forcing the vax is what vax zealots do in their form religion, or cult should I say? I'm not on the slippery slope of either direction but I don't like falsified numbers and medical censorship to anyone that says otherwise or has alternate information and remedies that work outside the narrow road of censorship and information control! Some medicine man deep in the Amazon could hold the cure in some local indigenous plant he uses to remedy something else! Nothing is more arrogant and ignorant than censorship! It can't be defended logically, only emotionally!

    Medicine is a "practice", not a "perfection". To censor alternative opinions can be an arrogant and fatal mistake.
    Any man that seeks leadership outside himself has a fool for a guide.

  18. #38

    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by rkspsm View Post
    I actually do have something, but its more of an analysis than data : https://www.flemingmethod.com/live-stream-of-event-2021
    Interesting, thanks. I haven't read it all yet, but one thing that caught my eye immediately was that they are using relative risk reduction rather than absolute risk reduction stats. They do that in statin research, too. Imo, it's a deceptive way to present the data, to make the effect look much stronger than it really is. They say, "95% effective!" but they don't tell you that's based on relative risk. The actual, absolute reduction in risk is only 1%. Of course they don't report that, because no one would be impressed at a 1% reduction in risk. So they choose relative risk as a way to present the data. It's a way of making the effect seem more impressive than it really is. It's commonplace in the pharmaceutical industry/marketing.

    The public doesn't understand the distinction, so they're easily persuaded by falsely inflated effectiveness stats. Heck, I don't think most physicians understand the distinction, either. I only learned about it a few years ago myself, after doing a deep dive into the research around cholesterol and statins.

    p.s. I'm not sure about some of the other stuff in that slide presentation, the stuff that is more conspiratorial in nature. On the other hand, I've learned over time that calling something a "conspiracy theory" is often just a way to silence people, and certainly, there are nefarious actors in the world who align for nefarious purposes. Whether that's going on here or not, I cannot say, and I'm honestly not curious enough to try to figure out. I just want to know whether getting the jab is in my best interests or not.

    I'm coming to believe that it doesn't matter a hell of a lot, one way or the other -- that both sides of the argument are exaggerated. But I'm not claiming to be some expert. That's just my impression.
    Last edited by Eddie Haskell; August 30, 2021 at 7:24 PM.

  19. #39
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    Interesting, thanks. I haven't read it all yet, but one thing that caught my eye immediately was the use of relative risk reduction ratios vs. absolute risk. They do that in statin research (marketing) as well. It's a very deceptive way to present the data. They say it's 95% effective, but they don't tell you the actual (vs. relative) risk reduction is less than 1%. It's a funny and familiar statistical manipulation that I learned about while digging into the way statin efficacy is presented and marketed. Imo, it's very dishonest. The public doesn't understand the distinction -- hell, I've got a PhD and have plenty of experience analyzing data and scientific studies, yet I only learned about relative vs. absolute risk a few years ago. Absolute (real) risk reduction hardly ever reported, because it's often so unimpressive.
    Agreed !!! Which is why I say, there are three things in statistics :

    1. Raw data. This is actual measurement or observation. There are tables, with rows and columns, and observed data is present. This is what I call evidence. Of course it can be tampered or manufactured with, but more on this in a moment.

    2. Algorithms. This is anything you can do on that data, you can sum them, average them, calculate mean and variance and all that jazz.

    3. Output from those algorithms. This is where the problem starts. The "studies" will say they have observed X% of people do Y. Well, any such deduction must've been achieved by applying some algorithm on raw data or output from algorithm, eventually being applied to raw data. What I ask to any person, who wants me to do something I dont want to at first, is to not bother me with outputs. Just point me to raw data and the algorithms.

    I have said this at other places in the forum to (please) spare me the sermon, and just give me numbers, equations, formulas and procedures.

    About tampering with raw data, you being experienced with data analysis, you must be knowing how hard it is to tamper with raw data and NOT get detected. You never know which algorithm a person will apply on your data, you never know which other data your data will be compared against in future, and that new data may come from you !! Its incredibly hard to avoid detection against someone who knows what he is doing.

    And this is why most of the first evidence is hidden. Of course this is not the only reason. Most people dont know what to do with raw data, they dont have experience with tools which can be used to analyze large volumes of data, and/or they are just lazy and dont care. They just want summaries and conclusions.

    I am by profession, a programmer, and few years ago I was involved in a project which was about displaying results and other analysis about exams in a college. The guy asked me if we can have a special page, not visible from any link, but that will allow them to do some "off the record" modifications with some summary (say % of people passed). I told him that while that is certainly doable, it can be easily detected by other indirect ways, because the software did allow visitors (on the web page) to view the individual marks of each student in each course/subject for any exam they have taken.

    Hiding that data was out of the question, as that was the primary purpose of the project, and yet this feature was very much needed by the "stakeholders" of the project. In the end, I had to suggest them that if they really want to do that, then atleast present the raw data in a way which, if not impossible, then hard to data mine from. Eg, not allowing the visitors to get the whole data in an excel table or anything, but in small chunks and that too in difficult to process formats like images or pdf.

    My point is, I have some first hand experience of being involved with people who have active interest in doing the manipulations, and I have seen what their strengths and weak points are. The raw data is their weakest point. If you can get it in a machine readable format like excel file or csv file, you can easily tear apart any false summaries.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.

  20. #40
    Senior Member rkspsm's Avatar
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    Re: Eric Clapton feared he would ‘never play again’ after ‘disastrous’ time with vaccine

    Quote Originally Posted by Eddie Haskell View Post
    p.s. I'm not sure about some of the other stuff in that slide presentation, the stuff that is more conspiratorial in nature. On the other hand, I've learned over time that calling something a "conspiracy theory" is often just a way to silence people, and certainly, there are nefarious actors in the world who align for nefarious purposes. Whether that's going on here or not, I cannot say, and I'm honestly not curious enough to try to figure out. I just want to know whether getting the jab is in my best interests or not.

    I'm coming to believe that it doesn't matter a hell of a lot, one way or the other -- that both sides of the argument are exaggerated. But I'm not claiming to be some expert. That's just my impression.
    Yeah feel free to use whatever you find in that presentation useful.

    Regarding "conspiracy theory", I only have one method to test ANY theory. I dont even know what is the intended meaning of "conspiracy" in the conspiracy theory to be honest. There is one and only one method to test a theory, and that method is prevalent everywhere. That method is foundations of science, foundations of law, and even the foundations of our brains ! Because thats exactly how we learn and interpret things.



    For any theory, you want it to stay in the middle. The conspiracy theorists tend to do what is on the left. An overly simplistic theory, about some grand plan happening in the background. And the anti conspiracy theorists end up being on the right, because they will come up with a simplistic model to describe a small set of observations, but if you apply this to a large(r) set, you will get the needless zig-zag. This is classic underfitting vs overfitting, I am sure you must be familiar with these.
    Greedy algorithms always get stuck in a local extrema...

    If you cannot determine global extrema... or if the graph (or space) is infinite, genetic algorithms give better results.

    The function space or hypothesis space is not only infinite, but in most cases, have infinite dimensions.


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