Thread: Biden predicts Russia will invade Ukraine

(link: Biden predicts Russia will invade Ukraine (nbcnews.com))

President Joe Biden predicted Wednesday that Russia will invade Ukraine, just as the United States launched a fresh effort to resolve the standoff and Moscow continued to mass troops on its neighbor's doorstep.
“My guess is he will move in, he has to do something,” said Biden during a news conference marking his first year in office, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine.

The declaration from Biden was striking given the escalating tensions there and the continued efforts by America and its allies to find a diplomatic solution.
Biden said Putin “will be held accountable” and has “never have seen sanctions like the ones I promised will be imposed” if Russia makes further moves against Ukraine. He added the U.S. would increase its troop levels in the region, including in Poland, keeping with obligations under the NATO treaty.


But Biden appeared to hedge his threats, distinguishing between a "minor incursion" and a full-blown attack.
"And it depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion and we end up having to fight about what to do and not do," Biden added.
If Putin invades, “This is the most consequential thing that has happened in the world since World War II,” said Biden.
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@uroach - Hope everyone you care about has been protected moved west of the Dnieper and that you're prepared and ready to greet the Russians with the advantage of solid preparation. Terence Popp mentioned that once the Russians control the air (How Russia Will Retake Ukraine | Live From The Lair - YouTube), there will be heavy casualties. Give them hell, and try to keep yourself alive.

Don't think Biden could predict if tomorrow is Thursday or Sunday - let alone consider politics.
This has got to be one of the weakest, most pathetic presidents in the history of the US, just a frail old man with dementia.

Are they gonna fire the nukes or not, I don't give a shit otherwise - maybe it'll be another 10 years of failure like Afghanistan and I believe it was 1.5 Trillion unaccounted USD that there is no official paper trail that was spent on that corrupt black hole, who got the dollar billz, we may never know? Woopty-do what a waste.

Is it only me that thinks this is a distraction from the omelets Charlie Foxtrot Biden's made of domestic policy and the covid response. The truth is that Joe Average does t care about Ukraine.

Unfortunately, its not just Biden. Seasoned military guys also think Russia will invade.

As I understand it, the key points suggesting it will come to an invasion are:

(i) There is a tremendous cost to maintaining and supplying such forces, so it will come to a point where either they invade or they pull-back;

(ii) The likelihood of a pull-back when Putin hasn't managed to get anything is low - he'll appear weak if he backs-down without getting anything. Unfortunately he isn't going to get any concessions or assurances, not from US or EU;

(iii) the penalties for a Russian incursion appears to be minimal - US and EU are unwilling to go to war with Russia over Ukraine; thus far they've only mentioned imposing additional sanctions as a penalty and Russia is already under US sanctions, while Europe has little leverage as they are dependent on Russian energy exports. Hence it appears there is little additional pressure which can be applied to Russia;

For America to fight Russia it would mean another World War as China would certainly come to Russia’s defence.

Ukraine is on its own.

Originally Posted by Ron191

.. The truth is that Joe Average does t care about Ukraine.

Its the same with EU they don't care, Ukraine is not yet a NATO member, so any invasion doesn't trigger the mutual defense clause (Article 5 of NATO).

That leaves Ukraine to fend for itself, and if you stack the numbers, it doesn't look good for Ukraine. If they had retained the nuclear bombs and strategic bombers leftover from the breakup of USSR instead of giving them away for dismantling, it would come in very handy now.

Let Putin have Ukraine, and China have the US, it's a better alternative to what we have now! I should have chosen to learn Chinese instead of Spanish! Damn'it!

Love of country has been extracted from me by none other than country that values dogs and dirt over that of men!

Defense of this abortion called nation is self defeating, indifference is where I'm forced to stand, let the ladies fight the enemy, they're the ones with everything to loose!

Originally Posted by johnsmith79

Its the same with EU they don't care, Ukraine is not yet a NATO member, so any invasion doesn't trigger the mutual defense clause (Article 5 of NATO).

That leaves Ukraine to fend for itself, and if you stack the numbers, it doesn't look good for Ukraine. If they had retained the nuclear bombs and strategic bombers leftover from the breakup of USSR instead of giving them away for dismantling, it would come in very handy now.

I'm willing to bet that NATO didn't want Ukraine because they always knew Russia would invade one day.

Based on how the last few foreign adventures have panned out for the U.S., I'd say it'd be extremely unwise to get even the least bit involved in that mess. This country's got to stop diddling with things that don't concern it. When the hell are we going to learn.

Russia has been invaded many times. Yhe last invasion on its soil cost them 25 million lives. The Russian people will put up with almost anything to have that not happen again so Putin has a free hand in this matter.

The industrial military complex must be wringing their hands!

Originally Posted by Kryptic

For America to fight Russia it would mean another World War as China would certainly come to Russia’s defence.

Ukraine is on its own.

What about Taiwan?

Originally Posted by Brock

What about Taiwan?

There's the Taiwan Relations Act (https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relations...relations-act/), where it states:-

1. ...
2. It is the policy of the United States–
   
   1. to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western Pacific area;
   2. to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;
   3. to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;
   4. to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;
   5. to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and
   6. to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.

These clauses provide strategic ambiguity for US to involve themselves in the defence of Taiwan, without having an explicit obligation to defend Taiwan.

Originally Posted by johnsmith79

There's the Taiwan Relations Act (https://www.ait.org.tw/our-relations...relations-act/), where it states:-

1. ...
2. It is the policy of the United States–
   
   1. to preserve and promote extensive, close, and friendly commercial, cultural, and other relations between the people of the United States and the people on Taiwan, as well as the people on the China mainland and all other peoples of the Western Pacific area;
   2. to declare that peace and stability in the area are in the political, security, and economic interests of the United States, and are matters of international concern;
   3. to make clear that the United States decision to establish diplomatic relations with the People’s Republic of China rests upon the expectation that the future of Taiwan will be determined by peaceful means;
   4. to consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts or embargoes, a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States;
   5. to provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character; and
   6. to maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or the social or economic system, of the people on Taiwan.
   
   

These clauses provide strategic ambiguity for US to involve themselves in the defence of Taiwan, without having an explicit obligation to defend Taiwan.

Last I recall, the US gets all of it's heavy duty high-tech computer chips manufactured in Taiwan - North America doesn't have the facilities to create them by themselves but they have started to build em this or last year thanks to the supply chain disasters - will be 4-5 till they're up and running, China actually attempting to take Taiwan would be seen as an act of war that would cripple the US, they could make the excuse to protect Taiwan democracy or w/e sounds better tbh.

The ambiguity is there in legal terms but the reliance on the computer chips that keep the economy turning & no doubt some military tech would be an unacceptable loss for US.

Let Russia have them. I don't even see how we can say Russia is expanding when we're literally on their doorstep with NATO. It'd be like Russia having troops in Mexico or Canada and calling America the aggressor.

Stop fighting for globalists.

Originally Posted by JustWannaRetireFk

Last I recall, the US gets all of it's heavy duty high-tech computer chips manufactured in Taiwan - North America doesn't have the facilities to create them by themselves but they have started to build em this or last year thanks to the supply chain disasters - will be 4-5 till they're up and running, China actually attempting to take Taiwan would be seen as an act of war that would cripple the US, they could make the excuse to protect Taiwan democracy or w/e sounds better tbh.

The ambiguity is there in legal terms but the reliance on the computer chips that keep the economy turning & no doubt some military tech would be an unacceptable loss for US.

You're absolutely right with regards to consumer-electronics. For the military supply chain, there are enough domestic foundries in all the key component areas to ensure a constant supply for the US military - its not by accident, it was probably planned that way so that if Taiwan or Japan or South Korea ever decided they wouldn't be friends anymore, there would be enough domestic supply to meet the military's needs.

One can see that US has a significant share of global semiconductor foundries here: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...ication_plants).

Note that Micron, the one of the world's largest producer of memory chips, has half of its foundries in the US, while Intel, which manufactures microprocessor chips, has some 60% of its foundries in US, not to mention there's Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, Renasas, Tower Semi, Rohm, etc. all with critical IC component manufacturing in the US.

Taiwan isn't critical, strategically, its more of retarding China from quickly catching up in the semiconductor space. That said, China is still expected to catch up, given the amount of resources they are putting and talent they are importing from all over the world. Then there's the current technology process which is nearing atomic sizes which means an end to Moore's Law is imminent, which means China will catch up at some point in the future, it may be 5 years or 10 years if we slow them down enough.

Link: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes back on Biden: 'There are no minor incursions' - CNNPolitics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly pushed back Thursday on US President Joe Biden's comments that a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine would prompt a lesser response than a full-scale invasion, in an implicit rebuke of Biden's comments.

"We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations," Zelensky wrote on Twitter in an apparent response Biden's remarks on Wednesday. "Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."
Biden's comments at a news conference Wednesday about the prospect of Russian military action alarmed Ukrainian officials as Russia has amassed tens of thousands of troops along the border. While US officials have engaged in multiple rounds of diplomatic talks with Russia in recent days -- and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with his Russian counterpart on Friday -- US officials have warned an attack could be imminent.

In his comments Wednesday, Biden suggested that a "minor incursion" could prompt a disagreement among NATO countries about how strongly to respond to Moscow.

Originally Posted by johnsmith79

Link: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky pushes back on Biden: 'There are no minor incursions' - CNNPolitics

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky publicly pushed back Thursday on US President Joe Biden's comments that a "minor incursion" by Russia into Ukraine would prompt a lesser response than a full-scale invasion, in an implicit rebuke of Biden's comments.

"We want to remind the great powers that there are no minor incursions and small nations," Zelensky wrote on Twitter in an apparent response Biden's remarks on Wednesday. "Just as there are no minor casualties and little grief from the loss of loved ones."
Biden's comments at a news conference Wednesday about the prospect of Russian military action alarmed Ukrainian officials as Russia has amassed tens of thousands of troops along the border. While US officials have engaged in multiple rounds of diplomatic talks with Russia in recent days -- and Secretary of State Antony Blinken is meeting with his Russian counterpart on Friday -- US officials have warned an attack could be imminent.

In his comments Wednesday, Biden suggested that a "minor incursion" could prompt a disagreement among NATO countries about how strongly to respond to Moscow.

Biden; the new Neville Chamberlain!

Originally Posted by mgtower

Biden; the new Neville Chamberlain!

Neville Chamberlain was a moron to believe Hitler. And it almost cost him his country for his foolishness when they won WWII with America.

And Biden? He's worse than Chamberlain. He has dementia. And right now he's acting as a dictator.

I just finished watching John Tabacco's "Wise Guys" roundtable on Newsmax TV. One of his guests said there's a possibility Russia's got dirt on Biden and Biden knows it. It does make sense, since the Biden family's chummy with China (https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2...linked-to-ccp/ or https://archive.ph/S7dri), and China's a Russian ally now, so the two countries are probably sharing intel on their enemies.